Vaccinerne virker. Også i Israel.

I Israel stiger antallet af indlæggelser sammen med smittetallet. Dette er i modsætning til udviklingen i Holland og UK, som jeg tidligere har skrevet om her.

The vaccines retain high efficacy (85-95%) vs. severe disease

Jeffrey Morris på covid-datascience.com

Det har ført til en række spekulationer ift. effekten af vacciner (aftager den fx allerede efter 4-6 måneder?). Her er et glimrende indlæg om problemstillingen, som I nedenfor får et uddrag af.

One disturbing result involves recent reports out of Israel showing that nearly 60% of all patients hospitalized for COVID-19 are vaccinated.

Men man skal passe på med at fortolke dette tal for hårdt, fordi:

The key factors here that contribute to this confusion are:

1. High vaccination rates in the country (nearly 80% of all residents >12yr)

2. Age disparity in vaccinations, including

3. Nearly all older people being vaccinated  (>90% of residents >50yr) and

4. The vast majority of unvaccinated being younger people (>85% of unvaccinated <50yr)

5. Older people are orders of magnitude more likely to be hospitalized with a respiratory virus than young people (residents >50yr are >20x more likely to have hospitalized serious infections than residents <50yr, and residents 90+ are >1600x more likely to have hospitalized serious infections than residents 12-15yr)

Korrigerer man for dette, får man, at:

The vaccines retain high efficacy (85-95%) vs. severe disease, showing that when it comes to preventing severe disease, the Pfizer vaccine is still performing very well vs. Delta, even in Israel from whence the most concerning data have arisen… The same data also show partial vaccination also provides a decent level of protection vs. severe disease (75-85%)

I indlægget gennemgår Jeffrey Morris sine beregninger, og umiddelbart ser det meget fornuftigt ud i mine øjne (NB: Jeg havde aldrig hørt om Simpson’s Paradox!)

Her er hans resultater for vaccinernes effektivitet fordelt på aldersgrupper

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