Gregory Mankiw har afholdt årets Martin Feldstein Lecture hos National Bureau of Economic Research. Den handler om den amerikanske statsgæld, som har nået uhørte højder i fredstid.

Her er et par udplug:

“Courses in macroeconomics examine how government debt affects interest rates, capital accumulation, trade deficits, and so on. But the starting point for all that analysis is a transfer of income between generations. In their personal capacity, parents cannot choose to live beyond their means and leave negative bequests to their children. As voters and citizens, however, parents can do exactly that, and Americans are now doing so in a big way.”

“There are only five ways to stop this upward trajectory. They are (1) extraordinary
economic growth, (2) government default, (3) large-scale money creation, (4) substantial cuts in government spending, and (5) large tax increases.”

“I wouldn’t be shocked if the United States continued along the path of a gradually
rising debt-to-GDP ratio for another 15 years. But I also wouldn’t be shocked if the bond vigilantes suddenly attack much sooner. Cracks in the fiscal foundation have already started to appear. In May of this year, Moody’s downgraded US government debt below AAA status, citing large deficits and rising interest costs.”

“Putting the federal government on a sustainable path is, from a purely economic standpoint, relatively simple. If a random group of NBER research associates could be appointed as a committee of monarchs, they could solve the problem in a long weekend.
In the real world, the solution must come from our elected representatives, who
know that any solution will impose significant pain on the current generation of voters. For most politicians, getting reelected is their highest priority. Enacting good policy is farther down the list. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that a solution won’t come until the financial markets leave policymakers with no other choice. That scenario would be unpleasant for nearly everyone.”

Man kunne føje til, at situationen i Europa nogle steder ikke ser bedre ud. Tværtimod er den underliggende vækst lavere, de demografiske udfordringer for de offentlige finanser større og spillerummet for skatteforhøjelser mindre. Hertil kommer, at de europæiske politikere ikke alene kan sende regningen til kommende generationer, men også til hinanden. Det skaber et free-rider-problem, de amerikanske politikere trods alt ikke har.

Mankiws forelæsning kan ses i videoen eller læses her.