Nedlukninger flytter rundt på smitten

While overall consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions explain only 7 percentage points of this. Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection. Traffic started dropping before the legal orders were in place; was highly influenced by the number of COVID deaths reported in the county; and showed a clear shift by consumers away from busier, more crowded stores toward smaller, less busy stores in the same industry. States that repealed their shutdown orders saw symmetric, modest recoveries in consumer visits, further supporting the small estimated effect of policy. Although the shutdown orders had little aggregate impact, they did have a significant effect in reallocating consumer visits away from “nonessential” to “essential” businesses and from restaurants and bars toward groceries and other food sellers.

Ovenstående er abstract fra Goolsbee and Syverson (2021). Og det er faktisk et interessant resultat, som giver meget god mening. Hvis du allerede har tilpasset din adfærd til smitten i samfundet, så vil det være en ret naturlig reaktion at flytte dine aktiviteter væk fra aktiviteter/butikker, der er lukket ned, og over til åbne aktiviteter.Så nu hvor de har lukket Zoologisk Have og Tivoli, må du jo tage på værtshus i stedet. Det er ca. samme åbningstider efter seneste stramning af restriktionerne…

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