Hvor dødelige var COVID-nedlukningerne?

Det spørgsmål stiller Rob Arnott and Casey B. Mulligan i WSJ (bag betalingsmur) på baggrund af deres studie, “The Young were not Spared: What Death Certificates Reveal about Non-Covid Excess Deaths”, Mulligan & Arnott (2022).

For Americans under 45, there were more excess deaths without the virus in 2020-21 than with it

Her er det helt centrale fra indlægget i WSJ:

What are non-Covid excess deaths? During the pandemic, deaths from accidents, overdoses, alcoholism and homicide all soared, as did deaths from hypertension, heart disease and diabetes. From April 2020 through December 2021, deaths from Covid averaged 350,000 a year for Americans 65 and older, 100,000 a year for those 45 to 64, and 20,000 a year for those 18 to 44. That produced excess deaths for these age groups of 16%, 19% and 11% respectively.

Non-Covid excess deaths are distributed more evenly among these age groups, 35,000 among the elderly, 33,000 among the middle-aged and 29,000 among young adults.

Ifølge Mulligan & Arnott (2022) var der altså flere unge, der døde af ikke-Covid end af Covid. Figuren nedenfor (fra WSJ) opsummerer deres resultater

Så vidt jeg kan se, får de ikke rigtig håndteret frivillige adfærdsændringer. Det vil i mine øjne være fejlagtigt at tro, at overdødeligheden i ikke-Covid-dødsfald alene skyldes nedlukningerne. Men der er næppe tvivl om, at nedlukningerne gjrode det (meget) værre.

Og derfor er deres konklusion da også rigtig:

If the pandemic response had to involve wholesale disruption of ordinary life, the public-health community should have been actively monitoring its effects on the millions of Americans we knew suffered from drug addiction, diabetes and many other potentially lethal health conditions. No time is too soon to acknowledge and begin to alleviate the collateral damage from Covid policies.

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